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Riding out investment bends

Professional investor interest has been focusing on US government bond yields, with potential lessons for long term investment.

Source: US Treasury

On 22 March the US stock market caught a sudden – and brief – chill. One of the main reasons was the red line in the graph shown above.

This shows a yield curve plot, which shows the return an investor would receive from buying US Treasury securities, based on their term to maturity – from one month to 30 years. What happened on 22 March was that the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell below that of 3-month Treasury bills.

Usually the longer the term to maturity, the higher the yield, as demonstrated by the black line on the graph, which dates from one year ago. Intuitively that makes sense – the longer the period of time money is lent, the greater the risk that inflation will emerge to erode returns, so the higher the interest rate demanded.

History has shown that when yields fall with lengthening maturities – described as an inverted yield curve – a recession is imminent. The logic is that investors will accept a lower return from longer dated bonds because they anticipate short term rates will be cut to counter the impact of the recession. In the US, the reverse yield curve has a very good track record as a warning flag, which explains the stock market’s reaction to the news.

Whether yield curve movements have retained their predictive capacity is now the subject of some debate. There are those who believe that central bank actions since the 2008 financial crisis have so distorted the bond market that the yield curve can no longer be trusted. On the other hand, there are experts who worry about the credibility of any ‘This time it’s different’ message. The inversion has started to fade, but as ever, time will tell if the message is right or not!

 

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

HFS Milbourne Team take on the Mundays 5k

A team of 6 runners from HFS Milbourne took on the Mundays LLP 5k charity fun run on 8th May 2019 arranged in aid of the Princes Alice Hospice. For 2019 this was held in the new setting of the picturesque Painshill Park in Cobham.

A great effort by the whole team on a blustery Spring evening with a few rain showers thrown in for good measure!

Autumn Statement

We have pleasure in attaching here our summary of the key announcements in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement 2014 We hope you will find it useful and interesting.

It was much more significant than most Autumn Statements have been in the past and reflects the fact that there is only one more such occasion before the May election.  So George Osborne was clearly aiming to make a favourable impression.

The greatest impact will be on the housing market, which will immediately feel the beneficial effects of his lowering of stamp duty for the vast majority of home buyers – although it will only serve to dampen the very top end of the market.

The reform to ISAs – making them inheritable, at least between married couples and civil partners – echoes the upcoming and welcome changes to the taxation of pension death benefits.

There were many other important announcements which we cover in the summary.

Autumn Statement 2014