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A different view on tax reform

A leading think tank has proposed a radical shake up of the UK tax system.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) is a centre-left think tank that has a long history of influencing Labour Party policy. So, its ideas on tax reform published in the final report of its ‘Commission on Economic Justice’ are of more than just academic interest.

Income tax and national insurance – The IPPR propose combining income tax and national insurance contributions (NICs) into a single tax, applicable to all income, including investment income. They would replace the current system of incremental tax bands with a gradually rising rate applied to all taxable income, capped at a maximum 50% marginal rate above £100,000. Their proposal would smooth out inconsistent marginal rates, as the graph shows.

Source: IPPR

Inheritance tax (IHT) The IPPR supports the recent proposals from the Resolution Foundation to abolish IHT. The IPPR would replace IHT with a lifetime gifts tax, payable by the recipient of a gift or legacy (other than a spouse or civil partner) – currently IHT is usually paid by the estate. Income tax rates would apply once a lifetime receipts allowance of £125,000 has been reached. According to the IPPR, this tax structure would raise much more than IHT, as it would largely remove the benefit of making gifts during lifetime.

Capital gains tax – The IPPR propose abolishing “most exemptions”, other than for the main residence. Capital gains would instead be taxed at income tax rates, implying a maximum marginal rate of 50% under their proposed income tax structure. Taxing capital gains as income is not a new idea – it was a practice previously introduced in the late 1980s, by the Conservative Chancellor, Nigel Lawson.

Corporation tax – Instead of cutting the corporation tax rate from 19% to 17% in 2020, the IPPR proposes increasing the rate to 24%, with business reliefs and allowances ‘simplified’ (i.e. cut back) to broaden the tax base. To tackle multinational tax avoidance (a practice associated with the FAANS companies, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google), the IPPR proposes an alternative minimum corporation tax, pro-rating global profits to the proportion of global turnover in the UK.

These wide-reaching proposals are unlikely to be implemented exactly as the report proposes. But if we do see a Labour government, the IPPR could become more relevant, quite quickly.

The value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances.

Tax laws can change.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax advice.   

Trick or treat? The Chancellor calls the 2018 Budget for late October

The 2018 Budget has been set for Monday 29 October, setting a deadline for speculation and proposals. Mr Hammond, however, has indicated that he won’t end the long spell of austerity measures, despite improving public finances.

Proposals raised by think tanks and professional bodies include overhauls of income and inheritance tax, ‘pension tax relief simplification’, and scrapping entrepreneur’s relief to help fund NHS costs.

But every proposal is overshadowed by Brexit, and the uncertainty of what will happen on 29 March 2019.

What’s coming?

Alongside measures announced in the draft Finance Bill, the following areas could see change:

The NHS – The NHS Foundations’s ten-year plan may not be published in time for the Budget, so the Chancellor could be limited to general spending priorities. Mr Hammond said a digital services tax or ‘Google tax’ is coming – with or without European allies. This income could be dedicated to the NHS.

Inheritance tax (IHT) – The IHT review from the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) may be published ahead of the Budget. It was tasked to look at making IHT less complex, focusing especially on trusts, administrative issues and business and agricultural property reliefs. Calls for a complete overhaul in favour of a ‘lifetime receipts’, ‘property’ or ‘wealth tax’ seem unlikely from a Conservative government.

Stamp duty – After introducing new reliefs for first-time buyers, focus has shifted to ‘last time’ buyers, with calls to incentivise older homeowners to downsize. The Prime Minister has also indicated that an additional 1-3% duty could be levied on foreign property buyers to help control rising house prices and tackle homelessness.

Business – Business rates are due to increase next year, with business groups calling for action. The Chancellor’s conference speech outlined changes to the apprenticeship levy to help build training and skills for SMEs, and appeared to boost commitment to the business sector.

The environment – We are likely to see a dedicated plastics packaging tax. Initial reports indicated the costs would be borne by manufacturers rather than consumers. However, we may also see an increase to the plastic bag levy from 5p to 10p and roll out to all shops, not just firms with over 250 employees.

In this most turbulent of times, facing pressure from many groups, perhaps the only clear thing is that Mr Hammond has an unusually tricky balancing act to pull off.

Record inheritance tax revenues ahead of simplification review

Record inheritance tax revenues ahead of simplification review

2017/18 produced record inheritance tax (IHT) receipts according to HMRC data published in July.

The latest release of the annual statistics revealed IHT produced £5.228 billion for the Exchequer in 2017/18, an increase of two thirds over just five years. As the graph shows, IHT revenue has been rising rapidly since Treasury receipts hit a low in 2009/10, owing to the impacts of the financial crisis and the introduction of the transferable nil rate band.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the growth to continue, although the rate of increase will slow for the next few years because of the introduction from April 2017 of the residence nil rate band.

The Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) is currently undertaking a “general simplification review” of IHT. The OTS is focusing on the administrative aspects of IHT, but it is also looking at the “complexities arising from reliefs and their interaction with the wider tax framework”. With the OTS due to report ahead of the Autumn Budget, it is possible changes and/or pre-emptive legislation will be announced then.

It is unlikely reforms will lead to a reduction in the money raised by IHT. It may be the most unloved tax in the UK, but Mr Hammond has to find an extra £20.5 billion a year for the NHS by 2023 and IHT receipts are above £5 billion a year and rising. The politics of any cut would also be difficult to implement.

There is a case for reviewing your inheritance tax planning now, and possibly taking some action ahead of the Budget. Tax simplification can often bring to mind the words of ‘Big Yellow Taxi’ by Joni Mitchell: Don’t it always seem to go, That you don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone.

The value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances.

Tax laws can change.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax advice.

 

Slowing down our old age

A paper published in August by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) casts new light on life expectancies in the UK.

Life expectancy has been increasing in the UK for a long time, as the graph shows. In 1980, the average life expectancy at birth was 70.6 years for a man and 76.6 years for a woman. In 2016 this had increased to 79.2 years for a man and 82.9 years for a woman.

What the graph also reveals is that the rate of improvement in life expectancy has been slowing down. The ONS data shows a marked deceleration in the 21st century.

Between 2011 to 2016, women’s life expectancy at birth increased by 0.2 years compared with an increase of 1.2 years over the period from 2006 to 2011. For men, the corresponding increases were 0.4 years and 1.6 years. There was a similar effect for life expectancy at age 65, which rose by only 0.1 years for women and 0.3 years for men between 2011 and 2016, against 1 year and 1.1 years in the previous five years.

For the layman, this welter of data can be confusing, especially as the press coverage is not always well informed. A few important things to understand are:

The ONS life expectancy data imply that, on average, a man who was 65 years old in 2012 will live until 83.7, while a woman who was 65 years old in 2012 will survive until 86. The expected age at death also rises with age attained.

The data represents the entire UK, but past research has revealed significant differences between regions and even within the areas of single cities.

As well as regional variation, different sections of the population experience different mortality. For example, those with private pensions tend to live longer, probably because they are wealthier.

Crucially, the life expectancies are averages, so 50% of people will outlive the central figure. The spread around the widely-quoted average is significant and often overlooked. The ONS’s own ‘How long will my pension last’ website (which has not been updated with the new data yet) shows that a 65-year-old man has a one-in-four chance of living until 94, and a woman of the same age a one-in-four chance of living to 96.

The data suggests your retirement may not be quite as long as previously thought, but there is still a good chance you will be living into your 90s. If your pension planning does not reflect that, the sooner you review it, the better.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances.

The record S&P 500 bull run

The US stock market set a new record for the longest-ever bull market in August.

S&P 500 Index Performance

Wednesday 22 August 2019 saw the S&P 500 drop – by less than 0.1% – after 3,453 days, making it the longest-ever bull run (a period of rising share prices) for the index, which is used by professional investors’ as a yardstick for the US stock market.

The previous record was set between 1990 and 2000, a period that saw the dot-com boom, followed shortly after the start of the new millennium by the tech bust.

The current rally has been helped by a strong performance from technology stocks, notably the ‘FAANGs’ (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google (now called Alphabet)). It has also been aided by a period of ultra-low interest – the US Federal Reserve’s main rate was set to a historic low in December 2008 and did not rise above 1% until June 2017. In the last year US companies have also benefitted from Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts, which have boosted earnings figures.

Despite the record performance, this bull market has been labelled as “the most hated of all time”. Throughout, sceptics have viewed the market as trading on borrowed time and reliant on the easy-money policy of the US central bank. How much longer the rally can last remains a hot topic.

While interest rates are now rising the US economy is growing strongly, and that is working its way through to the bottom line of the now more lightly-taxed US companies. Similarly, while the S&P 500 index is regularly reaching new peaks, other measures of valuation show US shares much less highly valued compared to previous market peaks.

Whatever the future holds, the past near nine and a half years have provided a reminder of the wisdom of international diversification of investments.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

 

Student loan interest rates increase

The rates charged on student loans rose at the start of September.

The revised terms for interest on, and repayment of, student loans were published in August, along with the A level results for the year. From 1 September, the main interest rates for Plan 2 loans, taken out by students and recent graduates in England and Wales, are:

PeriodInterest Rate
During study and until the April after leaving the course.6.3%
From the April after leaving the course (maximum 30 years).On a sliding scale, rising from:

3.3%, where income is £25,725 or less; up to

6.3%, where income is £46,305 or more.

Plan 1 student loans, taken out by students in Scotland and Northern Ireland (and students in England and Wales whose course started before 1 September 2012), carry a 1.75% interest rate.

Both rates represent an increase – 0.2% for Plan 2 and 0.25% for Plan 1. The first was driven by an increase in the RPI for March 2018 against March 2017, and the second by last month’s base rate rise.

The income threshold at which loan repayments start to be made will also rise from 6 April 2019, to £25,725 for Plan 2 RPI-linked loans and £18,935 for the older Plan 1 loans. The repayment level will be held at 9% of the excess income, meaning the cheaper loans will require higher repayments.

Tax implications

The 9% repayment rate has the same effect as an increased tax rate above the threshold. An employed basic rate taxpaying graduate therefore could suffer a marginal ‘tax’ rate of 41% in 2019/20 – 20% income tax + 12% national insurance contributions (NICs) + 9% loan repayment.

Including auto enrolment, the same graduate could also be required to make pension contributions of 4%, net of tax relief, making for total deductions of 45%. As auto enrolment contributions disappear above the upper earnings limit and NICs drop to 2% above the higher rate threshold, the maximum overall rate facing a higher rate taxpaying graduate is 51% (40% income tax + 2% NICs + 9% loan repayment).

The Institute for Fiscal Studies believes that in practice 80% of graduates will never fully repay their loans, as they will have the outstanding amount written off after 30 years (or an earlier death). That makes planning to provide funds for your student child/grandchild to help them avoid having to borrow a potentially unrewarding idea.

A more effective strategy could be to make sure that they have adequate financial resources when they graduate to help them cope with those high effective rates of tax. For help with how that can be arranged, please talk to us now – even if the graduate is still only at primary school, it is never too early to start planning.

Interest rates creeping up after nine years

The Bank of England increased the base interest rate in August to 0.75% – the second increase in 12 months.

Source: Bank of England August 2018

The Bank’s decision to raise the rate to its highest level in nearly nine and a half years was no great surprise to the investment community. Of more interest to the experts were the comments the Bank offered on the long-term trend of base rates relative to inflation. The Bank gave a theoretical estimate of the base rate needed to maintain inflation and economic growth in a fully functioning economy, rather than another forecast of where rates might be in a year’s time.

The Bank said an interest rate of 0%–1% above the rate of inflation, with a ‘modal rate’ of 0.25%, would achieve this equilibrium. In today’s economic environment, with an inflation target of 2%, this would mean a base rate of around 2.25%. That implies:

The equilibrium rate will be a long time coming – several 0.25% increases would be required and the Bank has repeatedly said any changes will be gradual.

Returns on savings accounts will continue to be poor and often below the rate of inflation, even before the impact of taxes are allowed for.

Persistently low interest rates mean that holding too much money on deposit could damage your long-term financial health. Whilst we all need to put aside reserves for the proverbial rainy day, the UK has moved on from an era when base rates were expected to be a useful margin above inflation.

For an assessment of how much your ready cash reserve should be, and the options for investing any excess, please talk to us.

The value of your investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Is the LISA’s short life about to end?

The Lifetime ISA (LISA) may not survive after low uptake by providers and fresh criticisms from parliament.

The LISA has been reviewed by the Treasury Select Committee, which was critical of, “its complexity, its perverse incentives, its lack of complementarity with the pension saving landscape and its apparent lack of popularity with the industry and pension savers”. The Committee concluded by recommending “The Government should abolish it.”

The LISA was announced by the previous Chancellor, George Osborne, in his final Budget in Spring 2016. It was intended to appeal to savers under 40 by combining a first-time buyer’s deposit saving scheme and a pension arrangement, stretching the ISA idea into a very new shape.

Despite reservations from the Financial Conduct Authority about the regulatory implications, and reluctance from the savings industry, Philip Hammond launched the LISA in April 2017. Progress has been limited since then as there is still only one provider of cash LISAs. There is a wider choice of stocks and shares LISAs, but these are generally not suitable as deposit saving arrangements.

Although the Committee’s criticisms are hard to dispute, there are some situations where the LISA can be the best option. If you, your children or your grandchildren are aged between 18 and 39, make sure you check with us whether you should consider investing in a LISA before the Treasury Select Committee gets its way.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

The value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances.

Tax laws can change.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax advice.

OBR forecasts present need for tax increases in the Budget

The long-term outlook for government finances suggests tax increases are inevitable.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces medium-term financial forecasts alongside the Budget and Spring Statement, but that is not its only task. It is also required to take a longer-term view of the public finances, producing a Fiscal Sustainability Report every two years.

The latest version of the report was published in mid-July and did not make for comforting reading. The graph is a good summary of the bad news:

  • The black lines show the projected government borrowing as a percentage of the size of the UK economy. In 2017/18 annual borrowing was 1.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2067/68 it becomes 85.6%.
  • The red line shows the total amount of government debt, also as a proportion of the UK economy. As at May 2018, total borrowing was 85.0% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2067/68 it becomes 282.8%.

In the report, the OBR says, “Needless to say, in practice policy would need to change long before [2067/68] to prevent this outcome.” That means reduce expenditure and/or increased taxation.

Reductions in expenditure are unlikely, as much of the rise is driven by the costs of caring for an ageing population. In the short term increasing taxes is also hard to imagine, given the current political climate. In the longer term tax rises appear unavoidable, based on the OBR’s calculations. The first indications of what form tax rises might take could emerge when the Chancellor gives his response to the OBR in the Autumn Budget.

If you are looking for any solace, it is best sought in mathematics: these types of long-term projections are highly sensitive to relatively small changes in the underlying assumptions. If the UK economy were to grow faster than the 2.2% the OBR has assumed, the situation improves significantly. Alas, the opposite is also true.

With the UK’s growth rates remaining low, however, it seems likely the government will need to take some kind of action soon.

The value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances.

Tax laws can change.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax advice.

 

Residential letting to get more difficult

Draft legislation released in July contains more bad news for those renting out residential property.

The Finance Bill 2018/19 draft legislation published just before the summer holidays has confirmed the following measures:

  • From 6 April 2019, the rules for rent-a-room relief (which exempts up to £7,500 a year of income from tax) will be revised. A new ‘shared occupancy test’ means the relief will no longer apply if the entire property is rented out for the tenancy period. This will mean an end to going on holiday and letting out your home tax-free during sporting events, such as Wimbledon.
  • From 1 March 2019, the window for filing and paying stamp duty in England will shrink to just 14 days from the date of sale. Past experience suggests Scotland and Wales will follow suit.
  • From 6 April 2020, for residential property sales giving rise to taxable gains, a tax return must be made and the capital gains tax (CGT) paid within 30 days of the sale. Any adjustments would then need to be made via a self-assessment return.

Over the past few years, the Treasury has turned its attention to the private rented sector. As such, landlords must already comply with several new rules, including: the wear-and-tear allowance for furnished lettings being replaced with a tighter expenditure-based regime; the phased replacement of full income tax relief on finance interest costs with a basic rate tax credit; a 3% stamp duty surcharge for second residential properties; and an 8% capital gains tax surcharge on residential property.

The number of new buy-to-let sales is dropping, and some landlords are looking to sell following the changes. A consultation paper published by the government in July proposes minimum tenancy agreement terms of three years which may stimulate fresh landlord sales before the new CGT rule bites.

If you are thinking of moving in or out of this investment area, do talk to us about your options before taking any action.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances.

Tax laws can change.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax advice.